August has continued to be a difficult month for me. The dollar weakness has exposed my EURUSD position and the speed of the move up from 1.14 prevented what seemed like an unnecessary hedge at the time.
Part of this reasoning was the extreme exposure of Asset Manager Commitment currently at all time highs. When these extremes get tested it is a reliable sign that a longer term reversal is forming.
We could be at this point at 1.19 or 1.20. The fleeing from USD to Gold and combined with a likely trillion + Euro bailout has maybe contributed to the momentum of the move. I am not convinced that this is a sign of Euro strength and I still feel Euro bearish at least short term.
Comparing EUR with other crosses, especially EURCHF indicates that a EUR bullish outlook isn’t a valid one…yet.
With the Gold rush taking a breather the USD still remains weak as the China trade deal and further Covid stimulus packages are stymied by Washington politics. Although the core fundamentals of the greenback do appear to be strengthening against this bearish backdrop of overall opinion and media consensus.
I am actively re-balancing my USD exposure although whilst we still close below 1.20 currently comfortable managing my position which still has bags of potential for a positive close in August.